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Coronavirus threat that could lead to a Big Recession

Author: Sunil Kilaru
by Sunil Kilaru
Posted: Mar 21, 2020
case scenario

In the best-case scenario, the virus may last one quarter. Lakhs of individuals and businesses will die, but many economies could revive by end 2020. In this best-case scenario, the world and India will suffer a short, serious but not catastrophic recession.

In the worst-case scenario, the virus will spread havoc for a year. In that extreme case, billions may get infected and tens of millions may die. However, most experts predict just 0.5 million deaths. Still, the economic disruption, possibly as bad as in 2008. The recession that follows can cause thousands of bankruptcies (oil-related sectors look riskiest) that may make recent years look like a picnic. Corporate debts have stayed high after 2008, so the global and Indian financial systems are again in danger, even as they struggle to throw off the bad loans and mega-losses of the past. Millions will avoid going to work because of fear, bad health or lack of transport. This worker shortage will hit the supply of services and goods.

Conventional recessions can be tackled by loose fiscal and monetary policy. These will not work when fear drives the slowdown. In many countries interest rates are already close to zero, so central banks have lost their power to stimulate through big rate cuts. The RBI could cut interest rates by as much as 2%, but will that revive lending when recession and fear are killing businesses? The moribund financial system will blunt all fiscal and monetary initiatives.

According to Mr. Sunil Kilaru, Governments the world over should move onto a wartime footing which may involve it spending double what they spent during the financial crisis in an effort to fight the COVID-19 economic slump. Governments the world over will let fiscal deficits explode to stimulate spending. In a best-case scenario, we will fall hard but rise again by end 2020. A worst-case scenario is too scary to even contemplate.

About (Long):

Sunil Kilaru is an Entrepreneur based out of Bangalore, India focusing on two verticals - IT and Real Estate.

Sunil is the Founder Director & Promoter for PRIME Living. PRIME Living focuses on developing various Commercial and Residential Real Estate Ventures in Bangalore and Hyderabad.

Sunil is the Chairman and CEO of PRIMUS Global Technologies Pvt. Ltd. Under the Leadership of Sunil, PRIMUS acquired XT global’s India IT consulting division, Sarayu Telecom & Cafezee.

Prior to PRIMUS, Sunil was Vice President responsible for Professional Services of IPELION, a Dallas based Software Solutions Company.

Prior to getting into Management, Sunil was an IT Architect for Hitachi Consulting. At Hitachi, he was a Technical Project Manager for Hitachi’s Oracle Practice. His responsibilities included implementing Onsite/Offshore Oracle ERP solutions for Hitachi’s Clients like Haggar Clothing, AECOM, IHOP, Tekelec, etc. Prior to that Sunil was a Senior Consultant for the Technology group at Whittman-Hart, Inc. He has extensive experience in designing, building, developing and integrating various Web/ERP/Client-Server based applications for the fortune 500 clients of Whittman-Hart. Sunil was the first employee of Whittman-Hart Dallas office before it grew into a 10,000 strong consulting firm. Sunil helped the Dallas office of Whittman-Hart in getting a good client base with his extensive contacts during the initial phase. Sunil was involved in designing and developing IT solutions for client's like American Airlines, i2, 3M, InterVoice, Silicon Graphics, Aimco, Westin Resorts, and Warrantech.

Sunil has an MBA in IT & Finance from The University of Dallas, M.S in Computer Science from the University of Texas at Arlington and a Bachelors degree in Mechanical Engineering from Nagarjuna University.

Sunil is involved in various NGO’s like Truth Labs, Crime Stoppers India and Genome Foundation.

About the Author

Sunil Kilaru is an Entrepreneur based out of Bangalore, India focusing on two verticals - IT and Real Estate.

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Author: Sunil Kilaru

Sunil Kilaru

Member since: May 03, 2019
Published articles: 14

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