ANALYSIS-U.S. aluminum imports climb on stock replenishment

NEW YORK, Oct 12 (Reuters) - A month-over-month decline in U.S. aluminum imports in August seemed to be a blip when compared with the 40 percent surge in inbound shipments of the lightweight metal for the first eight months of the year from 2008.With more signs of stabilization in the manufacturing sector and an improved outlook from the automotive segment of the economy following the government's "cash for clunkers" sales incentive program, analysts and industry executives expect a considerable level of restocking to take place.That replenishment of stocks should keep imports of the industrial metal running at a healthy clip for the remainder of the year, and on into 2010."It should help imports going forward," said Frank Lesh, broker and futures analyst with Future Path Trading in Chicago.Data from the U.S. International Trade Commission last Friday showed August imports of aluminum slowed to 113,982 tonnes from 189,671 tonnes in July.However, imports from January to August jumped 40.4 percent to 1,344,686 tonnes, versus 957,419 tonnes in the same period of 2008. Further bouts of volatility are likely in upcoming base metals import data as distressed end-user markets continue to cope with the lagging effects of the economic downturn.But, as the industry recovers, manufacturers will need to have material on hand to meet any potential demand recovery."Automotive inventories really got to historic lows following the 'cash for clunkers,' so there is an inventory rebuilding theme in automotive that is going to carry for the next couple of quarters without question," said Randall Scheps, director of marketing for ground transportation for aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. According to the Copper Journal, U.S. auto sales rose 26.5 percent to 1.262 million vehicles in August from July, while inventories of cars and trucks fell by 396,400, or 21.6 percent, to 1,432,300 at the end of August.Automotive inventory levels in August represented just 30 days of supply, down from 48 days in July."The U.S. 'cash for clunkers' program is responsible for sales of some 700,000 units alone and manufacturers are past the summer shutdown period, with a likely restocking on the way," Bart Melek, global commodity strategist with BMO Nesbitt Burns in Toronto, said in a research report."This means both metal demand for current production and inventory building is required to facilitate higher activity levels in auto manufacturing (restocking)."

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