The Return of American Idol

The reality television genre is still relatively new. "The Real World" was the kickstart for the genre, and that show premiered on MTV back in 1992. Although it premiered in 1992, the influence wasn’t really felt until years later. It wasn’t until the late 90s when the genre was mainstreamed. CBS started broadcasting shows like "Big Brother" and "Survivor" to high viewership.

However, as highly rated as those shows were--and still are--the flagship of the genre at the turn of the century was "American Idol." "Brother" and "Survivor" are still on the air, but "Idol" was recently canceled.

Or was it?

FOX canceled "American Idol" on May 11, 2015. However, on May 9, almost two years to the day, ABC announced that it would pick up and "revive" the show. The blockbuster show will return to being part of Dish packages in 2018, but will it retain its blockbuster status? Can "American Idol" really still compete in an oversaturated market of talent competitions?

The Blockbuster Years

To answer that question effectively, let’s make one thing clear: "American Idol" was undoubtedly a blockbuster. Not a hit show; a blockbuster.

During its run on Fox from 2002 to 2015, "American Idol" was in a ratings class of its own for a majority of that time. In terms of weekly programming, I think it’s impossible to argue against the idea that "Idol" was the ratings success story of the decade.

The second season finale (38 million viewers) outrated the Oscars from that same year (33 million viewers). Now, contrarians might rightfully point out that the year was 2003, and the Oscars happened just days after the initial invasion of Iraq. That’s absolutely a fair point. Here’s another fair point: the season premieres for seasons 5-9 outrated the Oscars in each respective year.

In fact, "Idol" was the highest rated weekly program for eight consecutive years in the 18-49 demographic, which most advertisers and network executives will tell you is the demographic sweet spot. For perspective, "All in the Family" and "The Cosby Show"--two of the most influential and most watched shows in television history--each had a five year run as the highest rated show on television.

The fifth season of "Idol" beat the second highest rated show of the year, "Grey’s Anatomy", by 26%. Other networks started referring to "Idol" as the "Death Star," due to the fact "Idol" simply crushed whatever competition the other networks fielded in that timeslot.

The Decline

Around 2009, there was a feeling that there were three certainties in life: death, taxes, and American Idol’s ratings dominance. But television doesn’t work that way. Audiences love new. Eventually, "Idol" was destined to experience a downfall in the ratings.

The dip started to happen around 2011-2012. This was right around the time that the judges panel was changing. Ellen Degeneres replaced Paula Abdul. Simon Cowell left to focus on a different talent show, "The X Factor." The fact that Simon Cowell--who was unquestionably one of the show’s biggest draws--left isn’t the only crucial part of that previous sentence. It’s also what he left for.

By the start of the decade, the rest of television had caught on. There were new talent shows popping up in Dish packages constantly. Think not only "The X Factor," but "The Voice," "America’s Got Talent," and "So You Think You Can Dance." "Idol" was starting to quickly become a victim of its own success.

To be fair, "Idol" was still a highly rated show during its later seasons. It didn’t fall outside of the top 20 in ratings until 2014. But the juggernaut status was long gone by the time 2015 rolled around.

Can it Still Compete?

So now the big question: why is ABC bringing it back?

The last time ABC resurrected another network’s show that was declining in the ratings was "Scrubs," and "Scrubs" fans will tell you that that didn’t work out so well. It was canceled only after two seasons.

ABC has at least had success with the reality/talent show genre before. "Dancing with the Stars" has been one of the biggest hit shows on Dish packages for years. They have also had failures with "Duets" and "Rising Star." And network executives are claiming that changes will be made to "Idol" before it premieres. As of now, no host or judges have been announced, so it’s hard to predict what any new format might look like. Ryan Seacrest, who was the host for the show’s entire duration, recently signed on to be Kelly Ripa’s new co-host on her morning talk show. That isn’t to say that Seacrest can’t perform double duty though.

But the show wasn’t about the judges or Seacrest; the show, for many, was about the music and the contestants. And that could be "Idol’s" core problem going forward. Because of newer technology and social media platforms that weren’t around during the show’s peak, there are more avenues than ever to attempt to propel a music career. Many talented singers went on "Idol" because they didn’t have access to an Instagram or Soundcloud account in previous years. "Idol" was a starmaker in an ecosphere void of starmakers. Now, American culture is filled to the brim of starmakers, and they aren’t all rooted in television.

Conclusion

It’s unclear if "Idol" can still compete. Even though the ratings were still fine by the end, they were experiencing a sharp decline. No show can last forever; ask anyone who used to work on a soap opera.

There will definitely be fans of the old show who will check out the newest iteration out of curiosity at the very least. How long will they stick around? We’ll find out after the break!