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Continued rise in us production and a gain in oil products inventories kept crude oil under check after the wti futures dropped under $50 per barrel. Supportive cues from global equities failed to prop crude much. MCX crude oil futures also dropped well under RS 3200 per barrel. According to latest data from baker hughes, the us oil rig count increased by another 5 to 688 last week, implying that further production increases are to come. Amid rising us oil production, investors are now wondering whether current production cuts by opec and Russia will ultimately be enough to sufficiently erode global supplies. Oil prices jumped around 20% last year after opec and other major producers agreed to cut output by around 1.8 million barrels a day for the first six months of 2017.

The latest energy information administration (eia) data recorded an inventory draw of 3.64 million barrels for the week ending April 21st, following a draw of 1.04 million barrels last week. Crude inventories declined to 528.7 million barrels, but are still 3.8% above year-ago levels and there has still been only a limited reduction from recent record highs. Cushing inventories recorded a draw of 1.20 million barrels on the week, the second successive draw. Domestic crude production increased 0.1% for the week to 9.27 million bpd from 9.25 million previously which was a 3.7% increase over the year. Gasoline inventories recorded a build of 3.4 million barrels on the week after a 1.5 million increase last week and inventories are now only fractionally below year-ago levels. Distillate recorded a build of 2.7 million barrels with a year-on-year decline of 4.6%.

Although the global oil market will likely tighten throughout the year, overall non-opec production, not just in the us, will soon be on the rise again, noted the international energy agency (iea). Even after taking into account production cut pledges from the eleven non-opec countries, unplanned outages in canada as well as in the north sea, the iea expects production will grow again on a year-on-year basis by may. For the full year, it sees growth of 485 kb/d, compared to a decline of 790 kb/d in 2016.

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