Despite lowest vote share in 20 yrs, JDS well placed to lead Karnataka

The Janata Dal-Secular (JDS) with 18.3% vote share and the Indian National Congress (38%)-a combined vote share of 56.3%-may get to form the government in the state.

Karnataka Election News: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 36.2% of the votes in the Karnataka election–it’s highest ever since the party first contested state elections in 1983.

However, the Janata Dal-Secular (JDS) with 18.3% vote share and the Indian National Congress (38%)–a combined vote share of 56.3%–may get to form the government in the state.

The JD(S) vote-share of 18.3%, according to leads and results, was its lowest in nearly two decades since 1999 when it had a vote-share of 10.4%.

The Congress vote-share of 38% is the highest among the three parties and the highest the party got since the 1999 elections when it had a vote-share of 40.8%. Although the BJP vote share was 1.8 percentage points lower than the Congress’, the former is 26 seats ahead of the incumbent Congress in this election, according to leads and results.

This is because elections in India follow the first-past-the-post system: The candidate with the highest number of votes wins the seat.

In keeping with a 33-year-old trend, Kannadigas voted against the incumbent government in the 2018 elections as well, according to an India Spend analysis of election data. From winning 122 seats to emerge as the single-largest party in 2013, the Congress lost 26 seats in the 2018 election, mainly to the BJP, according to leads.

In states where the BJP is in power, such as Maharashtra, Jammu & Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, the party, in its ascent to power, made inroads into the strongholds of regional parties, India Spend previously reported (here, here and here).

Going against this trend, in Karnataka, the JD(S) has largely retained its influence, winning 37 seats–three fewer than the 40 it won in 2013.

This is, as we said, despite the party recording a vote-share of 18.3% in the 2018 elections, down from 20.2% in the 2013 elections.

Read More à Karnataka Result 2018

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