Budget: A vision for 2019 elections

IF India is about to take advantage of the benefits of growth with demographic revenue, it will have the potential to grow in arithmetic progress if the education system is modified and given an impetus to generate employment.

One of the views of the budget for Projected costs for elections in 2019 is that Finance Minister Arun jaitely has managed to strike a balance between popularism and discipline. Another view is that it is a short-term safe budget in any policy of transformation in the last year of the government's mandate. But the prevailing view is that the Finance Minister's budget speech was like a campaign speech in parliament. Whatever the right view, it is difficult to ignore the key to the budget document: it is a budget that has many promises but lacks resources. Jaitely tried to please many, but he did not succeed. The main focus of the budget is the agricultural sector and rural India. This was not unexpected at all, given the evil signals of the agricultural crisis and rural damage.

The economic study clearly indicated that real agricultural incomes and real agricultural wages were fixed for four years. In the budget for the year before the election, the finance minister was not ignoring such a strong warning from the government's economic adviser. Nor did he ignore voters in 244 rural parliamentary constituencies that lag far behind their urban counterparts in terms of wages, incomes and wealth. Often, the union budget steals thunder economic survey which becomes an academic document once the budget is submitted. But the survey referred to several warnings. The biggest warning is the impact of climate change on agriculture in the next three decades.

Other key challenges facing the economy, the survey showed, are weak macroeconomic factors, slow credit growth, unemployment concerns, the poor state of basic and higher education, inadequate health care, and a slowdown in private investment. Among other things. Regardless of the basic reality, if the survey is the overall context of the budget, the Minister of Finance has a difficult task to combat many challenges on several fronts. Rather than face face-to-face challenges, Predicted elections in 2019 chose to address some of the problems through promises that may not be met because of lack of resources. There is a disparity between the disbursement of the actual budget and the resources needed to fund some major promises, such as protecting the medical care of 10 million millions of people. Regardless of the promises, Jaitely also failed to test the financial consolidation: the fiscal deficit for the year 2017 - 2011 was 3.5% compared to 3.2 previously, and 3.3% for the year 2018-19 compared to the previous target of 3%. This will have a negative impact on growth.

In response to the budget, former Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh, a well-known economist and editor, introduced a bold and transformative budget in 1991 that paved the way for India's growth. "Financial Account". Of the budget and asked how the Government would fulfill its promises, such as the minimum subsidy rate (MSP) for agricultural production at 1.5 times the cost of production. There is little clarity on how to implement MSP. The funding mechanism has yet to be discussed. The Nite Ayog Foundation, a government research institution, is expected to work with the institutional mechanism with state governments. It will take some time, and farmers will have to wait for an exemption from MS until the next harvest of autumn. Budget payments do not seem adequate enough to meet MSP's commitment. The lack of details about how the government finds money to promote agriculture adds more confusion to the big promise.

There is also little clarity on how the ambitious national health care protection plan (NHPS) will be implemented and financed. While Niti Aayog has calculated a cost of Rs 10,000 to 12,000 crore for the Center, experts fear that it will cost much more, anywhere between Rs 30,000 to 60,000 crore or may be more, and will be difficult to implement. The initial allocation for NHPS is a measly Rs 2,000, which will be channeled from the existing insurance scheme Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojna (RSBY). Therefore, the deficit is huge and experts are asking if the additional 1% of health cessation will be mobilized enough to compensate for the deficit. There is little doubt that India desperately needs universal health coverage, such as health coverage driven by US-type insurance, if not the UK NHS that is considered the best in the world, which is cost-efficient and service. Announcing health coverage linked to a mega insurance without a clear and sustainable roadmap seems more a promise than a commitment.Social welfare is an important aspect of economic progress. No nation has ever progressed well enough with dysfunctional education system, as deficit in education hurts economic growth. Crisis in education, as pointed out by the economic survey, has not been addressed adequately by this government, or even by governments in the past. While enrollment in schools has shown healthy signs of growth, the learning outcomes have not been satisfactory. Higher education, similarly, suffers from huge quality issues. If India is on the cusp of reaping benefits of growth on the back of demographic dividend, it has the potential to grow at arithmetic progression if the education system is overhauled and employment generation is sped up. While quality education, along with skill, is a tried and tested long term solution to spur economic activity, the finance minister has not done enough to make education a priority area for growth. Neither has he done enough to generate new jobs; EPF sops certainly don’t create many jobs that India needs badly.

Apart from the salaried class which has been ignored in the budget and the capital market which has been slapped with long term capital gain tax, by and large the finance minister has done a fine job of making people – particularly farmers, rural folks and senior citizens – believe that his government has been doing a lot for them through policy initiatives and reforms. Creating such an impression was important, given the fact that eight state elections are lined up this year before the Projected costs for elections in 2019 general elections. No matter how you slice and dice the numbers, one thing is for sure: there is a problem in the economy and the problem is much bigger in rural India.

The government could not have faced a national election with the kind of mood that exists in rural India currently. The growth story has lost momentum and hence the government talks less about vikas these days. Therefore, the best available option with the government to create a feel-good effect was the last full budget before the next general elections. Littered with promises and grand schemes, Budget 2018 is therefore an Predicted elections in 2019.

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