Understanding the Dynamics of the Russian/Ukrainian War

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After all the havoc World War I and World War II caused in the twentieth century, wars are no longer appreciated, admired, or rewarded.

The twentieth-first century sensibility has always been to choose political and economic stability, social growth, and well-being over international conflicts. You can find some inter-state skirmishes or continued armed conflicts and civil wars in a few specified global niches, but that's all there is to it. You won't find weapons of mass destruction, heavily armed military personnel, and army tanks rummaging on streets anymore. At least this was the concept for many until a regional superpower broke hell loose on a once-soviet-territory, Ukraine.

From a political standpoint, it will be a grave mistake to immediately take side with the Ukrainians without coming to terms with the acute measures for Russian aggression and how it frames the future of global peace henceforth.

While we begin to decode the Russo-Ukrainian war for our readers, we strongly condemn all acts of human rights violation, not only in Ukraine but throughout the world. All civilians, locals, women, and children should be given easy access to evacuate buildings, enterprises, and properties in war-torn areas. They should be given easy access to exit points around the country.

Here’s an overview of the Russian-Ukrainian tensions.

What’s Up with Ukraine and Europe?

The world knows that Ukraine and Russia weren't on perfect terms ever. They would manage to be cordial with each other, but that's about all. On the other hand, Ukrainian President Zelensky's vision of modern Ukraine called for speedy economic growth and development within Ukraine. This understanding sets the premise for the Ukrainians desperately wanting to join the European Union. The endeavors have been rife since 2014.

The Nip in the Bud

A neighboring country's direct alliance with Europe rang some bells for the Russians back in 2014. After showing its dissatisfaction with the Ukrainian motives, Russia attacked Crimea in 2014 and militarized some anti-nationalist elements within Ukraine to ward Ukraine of its initiative. The move had been working ever since until recently when Ukraine decided to go for the membership of NATO, the North Atlantic Military Organization.

Unlike the EU, NATO doesn’t work on economic cooperation. NATO is an active alliance of 28 European and 2 North American (Canada, USA) countries. The primary aim of the alliance is to offer military support and political assistance to all NATO member countries.

The NATO Expansion

The expansion of NATO into eastern territories has always been a red flag for Russia. Experts have been apprehensive about it since 1997. A letter published on the Arms Control Association mentions the names of around 50 experts who warned the then-American leaders about the impact of the NATO expansion in the East.

While the NATO expansion has not been as face-paced as a means to raise a threat, it has been strategically aiming for military drills, arms deposition, and combined military activities in Eastern countries aligning with NATO.

American convoys to Russia have repeatedly mentioned that NATO’s expansion is the ultimate bone of contention for the Russians. Many political critics and war specialists feel the Russian move is well-justified. A neighboring country like Ukraine can have cordial relations with the West but not become its direct allies in areas of military upscaling. The Ukrainian move to continue with its current ways was the primary reason why Russia launched "a special operation," as they call it, in major Ukrainian cities.

The Russian Attack

On 24th February 2022, Russian armies marched into Ukraine, and the unrest began since its first attack. Ukraine has responded with military force, and its President, Zelensky, has repeatedly been calling out NATO for military help and assistance.

On the other hand, while Russia is open to negotiation and strategic talks with Ukraine, it has clearly warned all other countries of dire consequences if they meddled with the Russo-Ukrainian war.

So far, the NATO powers have responded economically to the threat. After the attack, Russia witnessed a whole new row of international sanctions, bank account freezes, and temporary closure of outlets by global chains like Coca-Cola, Unilever, Starbucks, and more. The sanctions are most likely to be lifted once Russia moves out of Ukraine.

Emergency EU Membership

On 28th February 2022, Ukraine officially applied for EU membership. It called for the EU to introduce special measures to make Ukraine a member of the EU states. While the Ukrainian call seems comprehendible, there have been no such special procedures followed or introduced for other countries in the world.

The Aftermath

To simply conclude the dominance of one country over the other would be too hasty. As far as it has reached, the war is now depending on moves taken by third parties like NATO and the EU.

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The author is a political journalist affiliated with World Now Online. They have a decade-long experience covering international politics, issues of political contention, and analyzing foreign policies.